2025 is Smiling - Portfolio Perspective

2025 Is Smiling

Back in 2007, it felt like nothing could shake the market.

Every headline—housing concerns, rising debt, inflation whispers—got shrugged off. Stocks marched on. The bull kept running. Confidence turned into certainty. Then everything changed.

I don’t believe we’re on the verge of another Great Recession. But the mood? The feeling of unflinching certainty? That’s a direct replay.

That feeling that nothing can go wrong is back. So let’s talk about what’s really happening—and how to keep your footing when everything feels easy.

The Fed Said... Nothing

The latest Federal Reserve minutes were intentionally boring. No rate hikes. No cuts. Just an acknowledgment that they need more data before moving. Markets took it as good news. No overcorrections. No surprises.

But when central banks hit the pause button, it usually means one of two things:

1. They’re confident inflation is settling.
2. Or they’re unsure what comes next.

Either way, “no action” isn’t a green light for overconfidence. It’s just… neutral.

The Market's Mood: Euphoric

The S&P 500 is up sharply in 2025. Gains have been broad, momentum strong, and investor enthusiasm is running high. We’ve seen this before.

Rising prices aren’t a reason to panic. But they are a reason to pay attention. Because history doesn’t reward the most excited investors—it rewards the most prepared. And in times like this, optimism can become a blindfold.

The Crypto Headlines Are Loud Again

You’ve probably seen the coverage: the Trump administration is laying out new executive orders and a friendlier regulatory tone for crypto and blockchain infrastructure. Some see it as a signal to dive in. Others as a political strategy to attract young voters.

Both might be right.

But here's the behavioral reality: sudden enthusiasm often invites sudden regret. Chasing headlines rarely ends well. Just ask anyone who bought an NFT at the top. Curiosity is smart. Knee-jerk portfolio changes? Less so.

Why This Bull Still Needs Boundaries

In earlier notes, I’ve talked about the patterns: the market pulls back 5% multiple times a year, 10% every 16 months, and 20% roughly every 5 years.

Pullbacks don’t announce themselves. Neither do recoveries.

That’s why the idea of “staying the course” isn’t just a platitude—it’s protection. It keeps you grounded when the floor starts to shift.

Here’s What Trips People Up

• Recency Bias: When markets go up, we assume they’ll keep going up. That’s how people overextend.
• Overconfidence: Bull markets create the illusion that you’re smarter than you are—that your portfolio is bulletproof. Until it’s not.
• Herd Mentality: Everyone else is doing fine, so you must be fine, too. Until the music stops, and you realize you were just following noise.

What Actually Works

• Realigning with your long-term plan.
• Reassessing your risk now—before volatility reappears.
• Avoiding the temptation to "do something" just because the market is calm.

We talked about this back in spring, when tariffs were rocking the market overnight. That playbook still applies. Markets react to mood. You don't have to.

A Simple Question

If the market dropped 15% tomorrow, would your portfolio—or your mindset—be ready?

If you're not sure, it's time to check in. Not because I think a crash is coming, but because long-term success isn’t built in bull markets. It’s tested in what comes after.

Your Next Step

Take a beat.

Before fall volatility kicks in… before politics heat up… before more headlines try to shake your confidence—

Let’s review your plan.

Are you positioned the way you want to be? Are your investments aligned with your values—freedom, peace, security? Or are you just enjoying the ride, hoping the music doesn’t stop?

If it’s time to talk, I’m here.

Because smiling markets can be seductive. But staying humble? That’s the move.

Or as the poet Kendrick Lamar once said, “Sit down. Be humble.”

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